Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17fd30b0624944ba8adb4f246417c59fc10851edc8b1b6dea8c104dd0f40d20c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 1,491$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 800.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 21c | 555.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed No | 80c | 519.66$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 14c | 394.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed Yes | 13c | 366.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 324.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 19c | 300.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 14c | 299.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 298.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 297.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 248.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 21c | 246.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 214.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 168.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 74c | 165.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 22c | 163.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes | 26c | 158.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 152.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 27c | 143.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 79c | 142.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 113.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 100.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 14c | 94.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 92.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 91.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 15c | 89.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 36c | 89.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 21c | 88.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 19c | 88.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 33c | 84.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 31c | 83.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…d406backed Yes | 15c | 79.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 75c | 75.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 29c | 73.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 27c | 69.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 75c | 64.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 23c | 64.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 61.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 33c | 61.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 59.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 57.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 55.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 53.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 53.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 53.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…5882backed Yes | 29c | 52.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 31c | 51.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…0b67backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 31c | 48.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 29c | 47.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…f521backed Yes | 25c | 44.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 42.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 42.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 41.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…0a62backed No | 79c | 37.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…ce95backed No | 75c | 31.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 28.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 28.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…1ec0backed No | 73c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 26.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 24.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 72c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…2917backed No | 78c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 69c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 79c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.