Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x229f4be03a31b6e626964b4efc925f5e61e2a6442ed9a18551fff059c259490a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 425.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…f954backed Yes | 74c | 300.51$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 183.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 148.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 122.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 121.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…ec40backed Yes | 50c | 114.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 44c | 99.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…9f9abacked Yes | 46c | 95.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 76.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked Yes | 53c | 71.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 57c | 65.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 49c | 60.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 56c | 58.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 52.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 48.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 45.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 44.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 51c | 38.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 37.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 65c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…1e7fbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…81f5backed No | 58c | 32.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 64c | 29.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 40c | 27.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 48c | 23.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 44c | 22.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 76c | 21.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 54c | 18.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.