TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes51c4,525$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.556439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No43c4,088$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.092454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No29c3,410$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.334515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e4…c017backed Yes79c3,324$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No23c3,040$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3277129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No20c2,587$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.62245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes75c2,424$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.451457.1%8 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick75cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbc…cb61backed Yes77c2,240$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.41450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…14d9backed Yes40c2,141$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked Yes74c2,079$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.21827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-60.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64b5…dd7cbacked No31c2,035$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b0…4041backed Yes69c1,717$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No25c1,461$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.795932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes71c1,445$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.143336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb66…a175backed No40c1,314$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.811330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes42c1,263$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0408…856bbacked Yes72c1,232$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163a…6388backed Yes72c980.15$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7031573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No63c920$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.41266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes73c909.99$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.33842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes37c909$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes53c901$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.665332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed Yes37c866$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No63c855$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fc…fc19backed Yes48c844.75$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2251…25a0backed No44c815.94$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.021747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No27c794.71$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.5634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f0…e1babacked Yes38c757.72$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No33c757.04$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4114637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c704.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.5616616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No22c703.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.4810646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No24c685.39$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.4518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No20c684.74$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.5618628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed Yes64c640$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No22c635.94$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.672030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb3…60d2backed No23c635.66$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+254.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No50c612$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.062842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed Yes72c610$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.131442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ab3…303fbacked No33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2211…f15bbacked Yes39c599.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.53875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No26c594.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.3717330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No24c558.19$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.514944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44a…5465backed No28c536.75$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+173.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes73c535.49$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…26efbacked Yes41c512.08$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes70c509.99$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.453857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9967…09cabacked Yes79c506.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f90…517dbacked Yes79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3951080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f84…f7ffbacked No22c493$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes68c487.21$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b30…6c12backed Yes45c484.78$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.771315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Yes77c474.47$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028f…d434backed Yes76c470.02$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No25c457.3$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.4536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked Yes70c444.72$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.092857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes14c439.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602520%5 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No27c438$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dd…83e9backed Yes40c425.65$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Yes55c400.59$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…35acbacked Yes80c400$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c400$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16654934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No28c392.05$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0110634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes75c386.67$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Yes78c384.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e4…d641backed Yes47c381.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes68c380$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.213324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No45c366$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.633852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes42c339.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes30c316.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.885347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc0…9901backed Yes44c308.78$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No20c306.69$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.253847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d9…6c00backed Yes43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7813268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe384…a288backed Yes24c286.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc668…4f06backed Yes46c283.87$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.733243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No31c280$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19218445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e6…c6dbbacked Yes74c269.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6acb…3cd3backed Yes78c256.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No56c256.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No49c251.41$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.255940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a7…5beabacked No31c246.63$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No21c240.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1313243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No23c240.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6816051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed No67c240$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.71947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes73c230.25$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.51944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5b…a51ebacked No59c216.02$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb15…fad9backed Yes69c216$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes53c214$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3828434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No42c212.85$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.751540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No42c211.26$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa174…9535backed Yes77c211.22$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes47c201.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a80…7deabacked Yes78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Yes73c199.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No35c193.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6514225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…864cbacked No16c193.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes71c188.15$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes42c182.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.