World Politics · resolved market
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e332a537d75a5b4e906ea405330441c9d554ed2ebcd2ce64e9bf91b5723187b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12cc…3587backed Yes | 5c | 5,264$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…43d3backed Yes | 8c | 3,627$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…a175backed Yes | 5c | 2,809$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…2583backed Yes | 3c | 2,402$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 7c | 2,097$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0d…4939backed Yes | 6c | 1,646$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,560$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…8435backed Yes | 5c | 1,521$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,506$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,129$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…ea4cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,073$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…303fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,029$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…2a38backed Yes | 12c | 949.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…d947backed Yes | 15c | 865.92$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 833.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 579.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0e19backed Yes | 12c | 545.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…577cbacked Yes | 19c | 539.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 516.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…008dbacked Yes | 14c | 431.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…41a9backed Yes | 3c | 408.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 396.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4e…d3f1backed Yes | 8c | 343$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…0ebebacked Yes | 10c | 262.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…26efbacked Yes | 8c | 226.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 8c | 213.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 209.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2211…f15bbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d67…e756backed Yes | 13c | 186.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 177.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fc…fc19backed Yes | 13c | 168.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?this page
- Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?No won
- Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?Yes won
- Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?No won
- Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.