Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a31c7d21fd5f0138b93c3afdcfbc2fecdd815b7f27aab4a30706226135819cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 43c | 1,036$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.56 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 25c | 824.22$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.16 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 59c | 692.37$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.63 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 688.67$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 72c | 441.51$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 47c | 437.3$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 436.2$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 32c | 402.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 395.95$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 41c | 380.15$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 62c | 343.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 207.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 39c | 204.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 30c | 201.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 182.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 28c | 177.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 48c | 177.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 174.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed No | 66c | 160.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 77c | 144.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 134.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 31c | 121.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 49c | 120.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 49c | 114.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 111.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 55c | 108.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 62c | 106.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 11c | 103.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…bd97backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 50c | 99.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…8c65backed Yes | 47c | 98.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 28c | 94.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 89.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 60c | 88.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 85.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 56c | 85.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 57c | 76.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 55c | 72.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 67c | 71.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 68.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 66.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 24c | 61.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 60.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 62c | 59.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 33c | 58.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 21c | 56.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 52.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 57c | 52.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 47c | 50.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 49.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 61c | 49.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked No | 57c | 48.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 57c | 45.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 54c | 44.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 45c | 43.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…5b1dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…da0fbacked No | 51c | 38.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 60c | 36.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 60c | 36.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 46c | 35.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 50c | 35.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 41c | 34.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 53c | 33.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 57c | 33.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 54c | 32.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…4443backed No | 65c | 32.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed Yes | 43c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 57c | 30.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 50c | 30.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 30.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 78c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 47c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…9c9dbacked No | 60c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 73c | 28.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 79c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 62c | 23.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 51c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.