TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed34…2309backed Yes43c1,036$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.568336.1%30 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes25c824.22$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1615328.1%43 W · 110 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes59c692.37$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.6343139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c688.67$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No72c441.51$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8219047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes47c437.3$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6923334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…e43ebacked No75c436.2$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3318060%108 W · 72 L-21.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes32c402.31$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.951,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c395.95$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed Yes41c380.15$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.364139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No62c343.78$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1415759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No78c256$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c207.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes39c204.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3435233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes30c201.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.819720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c182.33$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.249,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0d…7839backed Yes28c177.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.454032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes48c177.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5416530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c174.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f9…e151backed No66c160.01$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.011861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.83534.3%12 W · 23 L-8.6wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-48.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3878…2e5ebacked No77c144.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.743754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c134.59$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.682,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes31c121.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1924442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No49c120.12$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No49c114.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No63c111.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.771,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No55c108.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.392,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No62c106.28$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes11c103.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2718038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d04…bd97backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No50c99.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.351,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ea…8c65backed Yes47c98.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes28c94.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c89.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.964,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes60c88.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.696137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c85.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.421,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No56c85.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3124539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c7…45acbacked No57c76.74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.994650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No55c72.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No67c71.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.411,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes51c68.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No74c66.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3342976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes24c61.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6812625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c60.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.732,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90a…07e8backed No62c59.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6811636.2%42 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes33c58.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+90.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes21c56.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No72c52.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8438961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70a…0883backed No57c52.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.447866.7%52 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No47c50.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.767979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f40…887cbacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No46c49.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c49.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe32a…a7f9backed No61c49.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.454564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes22c48.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7726834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7175…ae4ebacked No57c48.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.65850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed No60c48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes57c45.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.099162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf038…e718backed No54c44.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.323956.4%22 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes45c43.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.553525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f2…5b1dbacked Yes50c39.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c8…da0fbacked No51c38.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked Yes38c37.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.078239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87ff…b516backed No60c36.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.782152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No60c36.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5813067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…4e9abacked No51c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+58.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No46c35.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5563656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No50c35.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.732,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes41c34.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1214941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No53c33.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.019160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No57c33.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2711151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed No54c32.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1616320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5df…4443backed No65c32.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf229…3058backed Yes43c32.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9126861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked No57c30.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.357050%35 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No50c30.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0917365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No68c30.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed No78c30.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.542951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.929469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c29.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes47c29.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.646144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa806…9c9dbacked No60c28.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdf…97edbacked No67c28.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.531471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c64…be43backed No60c28.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5214461.8%89 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes73c28.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4610246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked No40c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.819171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8653547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed No79c25.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.426716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes59c24.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.353,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No55c23.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…0b95backed No62c23.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.684566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3172…e940backed No51c22.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.244369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.