Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459dada55d96dcade7d3f1f9de596cb74ee3b43ba76f2788c02d9cb1deaee441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 53c | 797.23$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.53 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 348.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 249.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 24c | 193.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 174.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 29c | 170.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 166.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 17c | 144.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 112.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 109.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 104.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 48c | 104.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 18c | 93.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 56c | 93.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 44c | 93.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 80.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 47c | 69.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 65c | 61.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 23c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 52.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…c352backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 29c | 49.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 33c | 42.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 41.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 39c | 40.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 35.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 70c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 78c | 31.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 29.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 63c | 27.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed Yes | 57c | 24.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 73c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…70d6backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 73c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 78c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 65c | 17.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.