Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff335324991cec559cf5faffc5fefc8cf4cc3925886f9455a2ba5fb300fc307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 11c | 1,267$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 359.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 299.4$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 262.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 23c | 200.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 80c | 187.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 181.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 115.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 104.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 94.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 20c | 93.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 23c | 86.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 80.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 80c | 74.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 79c | 74.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 15c | 74.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 65.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 64.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 58.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 54.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 44.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 78c | 40.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 80c | 34.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 23.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 80c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.