Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563846f0804e06e51b6ac5ab141b7f22513725eafe1e1f2b1cc606aaff0a0361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 33c | 717.41$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 66c | 534.08$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.89 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 504.09$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 58c | 357.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 31c | 299.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 258.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 47c | 253.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 44c | 250.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 250$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 245.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 21c | 240.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed Yes | 28c | 239.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 223.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 223.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 51c | 194.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 193.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 44c | 183.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 63c | 182.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 72c | 178.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 176.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 71c | 171.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 52c | 171.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 58c | 151.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 148.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 144.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 143.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 74c | 130.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 130.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 26c | 114.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 112.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 57c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 32c | 107.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 105.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 45c | 98.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 62c | 96.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 92.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 89.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 88.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 87.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 79.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 78.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 32c | 69.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 37c | 68.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 66.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 40c | 64.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 28c | 64.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 73c | 64.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 35c | 58.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 46c | 55.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 32c | 46.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 48c | 43.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 37c | 40.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 40.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 49c | 37.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 36.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 52c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 43c | 23.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 49c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.