Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3dda49189f2282b91ba5ea24ab06a211a0d41c5cefdf14e8a204adbd86b267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,018$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.04 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 4c | 363.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 352.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 69c | 348.44$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 314.14$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 20c | 310.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 36c | 284.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 229.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 219.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 68c | 217.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 204.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 200.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 72c | 197.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 36c | 187.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 177.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 16c | 141.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 12c | 129.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 40c | 116.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 110.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 41c | 109.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 107.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 39c | 100.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 15c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 99.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 43c | 93.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 88.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 88.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 85.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 85.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed No | 54c | 81.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…45f1backed Yes | 37c | 80.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 78.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 43c | 77.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 75.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 77c | 72.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 73c | 68.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 40c | 57.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 52.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 60c | 49.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 49.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…22febacked Yes | 58c | 45.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 45c | 44.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 44.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 40c | 43.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 44c | 41.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 34c | 39.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 55c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 32.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 30.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 41c | 25.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.