Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82861746c86d43a627bf0ffe85580984a877b5f65a54067efbcf5f4ef6b15cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 8,928$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 21c | 715.28$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 661.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 561.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 439.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 406.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 316.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 12c | 299.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 15c | 253.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 241.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 13c | 224.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 215.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 13c | 213$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 13c | 209.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 208.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 21c | 208.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 199.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 179.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 22c | 178.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 173.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 19c | 149.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed Yes | 18c | 137$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 12c | 125.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 116.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 15c | 115.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 77c | 111.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 13c | 91.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 13c | 86.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed Yes | 16c | 82.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 13c | 80.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 76.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…10adbacked Yes | 27c | 73.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 72.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 17c | 71.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 20c | 65.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…e34ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.