Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad9437ce4c83ce5a2e3d9f71d50f9cadd813f3e665fb283dc52cac655a12749f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 40c | 348.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…a961backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 251.13$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 23c | 208.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 14c | 183$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 166.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 73c | 165.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 76c | 143$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 78c | 127.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 126.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 24c | 122.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 122.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 118.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 28c | 113.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 108.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 27c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 99.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 27c | 96.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 96.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 29c | 84.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 27c | 67.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 71c | 67.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 61.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…0ef4backed Yes | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 79c | 50.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 71c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 48.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 23c | 45.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 75c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 32.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed No | 75c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.