Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5a98c645b7f286e8ce5945c3f0d4f98d2c2c70b869c392efba89769c097b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 7c | 700.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 48c | 463.01$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.01 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 62c | 324.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 292.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 269.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 38c | 185.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 49c | 157.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 157.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 69c | 142.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 132.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 130.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 62c | 121.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 115.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 107.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 46c | 103.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 51c | 102.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 94.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 49c | 92.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 79.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 70c | 78.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 26c | 76.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 51c | 72.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 43c | 70.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 62c | 67.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 74c | 67.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 42c | 65.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 71c | 63.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 48c | 62.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 51c | 62.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 64c | 61.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed No | 55c | 54.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 58c | 52.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 54c | 52.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 52.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 25c | 51.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 50c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 54c | 49.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 31c | 48.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed Yes | 68c | 48.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 43.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 49c | 40.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…e856backed No | 37c | 40.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 41c | 37.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 57c | 29.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 57c | 25.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 77c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 71c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.