Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee75d2858832cdacdb619dffa1e94663ae16bda3b9212f030a53f84f1e7dfd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 334.14$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 325.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 263.97$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 62c | 245.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 192.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 36c | 178.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 172.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 170.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 62c | 161.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 12c | 149.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 41c | 144.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 141.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 48c | 126.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 20c | 123.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 119.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 22c | 113.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 109.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 65c | 106.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 44c | 106.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 100.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 98.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 65c | 94.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 54c | 86.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 71c | 85.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 62c | 77.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 25c | 76.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 70.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 51c | 69.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 47c | 59.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 60c | 59.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 71c | 59.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 54.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 52.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 43.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 69c | 43.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 41.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 39.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 38.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 41c | 36.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 77c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 40c | 28.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 41c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a6…c6febacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 27.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…5ef0backed Yes | 79c | 23.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 58c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 21.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 54c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.