Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636dbe9806a7eb42992b093ed2b6b8ff7e0e97151eed1812b7d314a93ca8c8d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 443.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 67c | 331.17$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 288.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 233.39$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 220.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 184.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 74c | 168.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 63c | 157.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 155.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 10c | 149.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 147$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 34c | 142.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 125.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 121.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 112.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…e79dbacked No | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 34c | 103.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 33c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 82.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 76.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 23c | 67.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 65.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 67c | 61.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 54.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 21c | 52.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…acbdbacked Yes | 27c | 40.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 38.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 31.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 65c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…920fbacked No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 69c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.