TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes79c3,083$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No8c3,004$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c1,051$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.554,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f0…fa62backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103441.2%14 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+366.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No19c917.99$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.318920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No13c777.4$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1159021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No7c757.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No2c581.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes61c577.54$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes65c562.36$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked Yes48c503.23$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.34742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes45c496.55$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.155427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c367.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.812,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c356.6$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked Yes73c349.4$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.995455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No34c334.06$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.072,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c311$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.635,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes38c300.25$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No30c300$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c296$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes60c262.82$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes72c260.04$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.354447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No48c258.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c248.05$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.863,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No76c233.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2320172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes59c230.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.591,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes73c227.57$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.829634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No26c225.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.31,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes70c211.38$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.419747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3efe…b050backed Yes67c209.52$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No26c183.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8319052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes37c183.42$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.683450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes51c162.7$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0515843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No43c159.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes34c155.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No42c155.38$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.252,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes66c154.16$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes72c150.12$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.479425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No55c149.97$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2316046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes49c145.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes36c139.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No23c139$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9772624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes74c135.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.432634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes35c134.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.666227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No11c132.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.931,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa907…ba96backed Yes76c131.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6510955%60 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cd…3632backed Yes13c130$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+92.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No31c127.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.112,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c122.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.242,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c122.21$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.435,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c118.21$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No54c116.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes45c110.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.657328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes42c110$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.85939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c105.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.744,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c105.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.741,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a15…aeabbacked No48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes40c102.92$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9212941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No68c101.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6233567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes37c100.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4119123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8924…c8d2backed Yes30c100.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.17450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cc…9702backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…883abacked Yes42c94.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes70c90.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.763441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes74c89.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.792857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No51c89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed Yes56c88.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.985164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No46c88.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8215669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes58c86.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.716376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes58c86.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.328234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes43c82.52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.043941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x263d…fc4cbacked No36c81.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.461540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8924539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No60c78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.850373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.783,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes52c74.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No48c70.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c70.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.931,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.11330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.917364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes38c67.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.814531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6176…b4dfbacked Yes37c67.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.64560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c67.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes36c63.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.516627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes51c59.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.527,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae6e…b4bebacked No37c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.233458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No54c56.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.839,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed Yes37c54.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.215756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes57c53.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.191127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…96cbbacked Yes33c52.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes61c52.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.238337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No66c51.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9762770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes42c51.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7311038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.