Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x898810054f4bb639832020ae968780faa84a851d7945d9cd16ac05ca2072a55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 79c | 3,083$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 8c | 3,004$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.74 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 1,051$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 19c | 917.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 777.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 7c | 757.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 2c | 581.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 577.54$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.36 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 65c | 562.36$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 48c | 503.23$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 45c | 496.55$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 367.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 356.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 73c | 349.4$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 334.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 311$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 38c | 300.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 296$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 60c | 262.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 72c | 260.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 48c | 258.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 248.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 233.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 59c | 230.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 73c | 227.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 225.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 70c | 211.38$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efe…b050backed Yes | 67c | 209.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 26c | 183.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 37c | 183.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 51c | 162.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 159.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 155.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 155.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 66c | 154.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 72c | 150.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 55c | 149.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes | 49c | 145.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 36c | 139.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 23c | 139$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 74c | 135.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 35c | 134.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 132.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 76c | 131.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3632backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 31c | 127.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 122.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 122.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 118.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 116.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 45c | 110.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 105.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 105.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…aeabbacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 40c | 102.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 101.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 37c | 100.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…883abacked Yes | 42c | 94.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 70c | 90.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes | 74c | 89.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 56c | 88.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 46c | 88.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 58c | 86.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 58c | 86.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 43c | 82.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked No | 36c | 81.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 52c | 74.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 48c | 70.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 70.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 38c | 67.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…b4dfbacked Yes | 37c | 67.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 67.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 36c | 63.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 59.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 56.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 57c | 53.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Yes | 33c | 52.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 61c | 52.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 51.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 42c | 51.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.