TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes2c5,978$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes6c947.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes2c746.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.343441.2%14 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+366.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes4c609.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c594.21$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.812,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes19c508.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.069634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes23c498.9$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.395427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes11c495.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes17c367.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No70c353.35$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.418239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c318.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No65c313.78$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c306.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes16c305.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.651,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c298.3$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.971,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c9…e2dcbacked Yes21c250$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes19c223.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.339728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes19c209.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.055,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes30c208.55$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.578920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c199.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c197.18$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes27c182.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c161.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c149.25$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes12c144.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.118337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes31c144.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No80c144.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0731262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes18c141.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4625742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No73c135.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.968361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c135.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.111,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes18c134.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes31c133.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes34c133$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1851553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c127.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes22c112$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2519037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes35c107.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes29c105.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6927421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc16…d090backed Yes17c104.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes39c103.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes13c102.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3630813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c102.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes12c94.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0120144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No76c89.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c86.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950d…d4cfbacked Yes17c86.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes23c86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes14c84.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c76.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1632738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes26c74.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.443450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No78c71.36$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No79c71.25$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0817570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes29c70.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c66.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.182,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes21c66.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9216144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes30c65.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1a…158abacked Yes20c63.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes20c58.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No75c56.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No69c54.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8916863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No69c54.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x18ef…e590backed Yes23c52.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12355.7%2 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c52.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5234970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed No77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7311926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c6c…8cc1backed No80c50.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.093560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd912…32a2backed No65c50.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.623240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b2…31c9backed Yes23c50.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c50.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf8…5ec7backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c49.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.427771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No76c49.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9268645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c48.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes31c48.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes23c47.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c46.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No72c46.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0741258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes41c44.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1835133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes26c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed No70c43.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8321339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…e5c6backed No77c35.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.213959%23 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No79c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0639158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No80c32.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c31.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…13b5backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed Yes33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.238123.5%19 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec50…e521backed No71c30.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.841060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.