TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,087 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x738c…557abacked Yes1c6,855$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes2c692.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes18c565.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12534624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80cb…4629backed Yes15c443.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1415321.6%33 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes11c399$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.929425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes5c374.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.318,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes19c311.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.546717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c298.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c275.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes15c273.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.111,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes19c272.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0119123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056d…c0c2backed No74c269.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c234.16$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.854,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c232.64$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.763,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes11c228.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.951,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6136…96cbbacked Yes14c225.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.741866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No76c221.5$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.529634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes17c204.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes22c199.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c157.28$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes22c150.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4918038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c146.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes20c140$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No77c136.18$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8a…bdedbacked No74c134.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.726058.3%35 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c132$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.993,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes26c124.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.919017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c123.03$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f40…887cbacked Yes9c121.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.865614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes10c121.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No78c119.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c119.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes22c116.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.363941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c115.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c109.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.572,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c108$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.525,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes23c105.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No73c103.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c102.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…dc20backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes31c99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes23c98.28$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c94.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8f…1154backed Yes18c92.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes22c91.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes18c87.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes27c86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes18c83.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes18c82.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes18c73.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5721930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes20c73.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No77c71.61$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1417570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes28c70.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No76c70.18$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No74c67.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7321847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed Yes30c66.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes21c66.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes19c64.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4315454.5%84 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked No80c62.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.521338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.774,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No76c59.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes26c53.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9919632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a33…00afbacked Yes23c52.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.01540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No72c51.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7750373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes28c51.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.534540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.519720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.551442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.454129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes26c49.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes22c48.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.677425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes27c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5853437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.823,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes33c45.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb563…26bfbacked Yes24c45.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c45.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.414,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c45.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xec8b…2554backed Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0870%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabe9…affdbacked Yes27c36.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5868…64c8backed No74c35.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked No77c32.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.334057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23c…e889backed No76c26.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.395371.7%38 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No74c26.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9843859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No79c23.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No75c23.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No72c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.531,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No68c21.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8117071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No68c21.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.811670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No70c20.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9230565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.486660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1424053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe805…e416backed No74c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.423652.8%19 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2a…7e54backed No73c15.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.063850%19 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.232,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.