Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da9a0c4e581198d5dcaa3d444aecc4582f07000a561c442b328d4798a4e067b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 7c | 519.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…846cbacked Yes | 54c | 446.53$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 31c | 433.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 47c | 403.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 346.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 266.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 207.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 166.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 166.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 15c | 161.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 146.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…d0f4backed Yes | 34c | 139.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 48c | 129.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 80c | 125.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 123.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 119.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 106.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 106.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 56c | 98.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 86.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 47c | 85.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 51c | 84.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 58c | 83.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 81.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 57c | 76.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 75.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 70.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…9014backed Yes | 35c | 64.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4115…6af1backed No | 61c | 62.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…0737backed Yes | 33c | 62.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 61.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 65c | 61.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 46c | 61.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 61.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 44c | 58.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 33c | 56.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 64c | 56.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 51c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 55.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 54.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes | 44c | 53.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 20c | 52.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 53c | 50.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 79c | 50.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 47c | 50.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ba6cbacked Yes | 54c | 48.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 40c | 47.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 47.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 46.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…0c75backed Yes | 41c | 45.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 55c | 43.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 55c | 41.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…c27fbacked Yes | 46c | 41.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 31c | 41.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 31c | 40.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 40.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed Yes | 66c | 39.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 66c | 39.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 36.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…96f0backed Yes | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 43c | 35.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 55c | 34.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…1ec0backed No | 65c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 35c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb10…0e28backed Yes | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…cb41backed Yes | 46c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 54c | 27.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 25.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.