TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes11c1,442$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7640025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c599.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No73c489.09$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.453046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c442.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes26c410.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1923743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No79c379.44$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.035164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes37c323.83$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8830919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c304.44$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c294.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c275.24$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.952,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes9c257.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.381,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes31c233.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c231.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.239,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c199.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.623,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c175.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes34c170.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0745…5673backed Yes11c164.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c162.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c156.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.12,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c154.68$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.882,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes28c148.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0420631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes13c141.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.971631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes35c140.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c138.18$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No77c135.87$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.794963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No63c131.89$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.698955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes13c130$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.91,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes31c124.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9135233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes31c117.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5246240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c115.76$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c113.79$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No71c113$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes26c112.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1418327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…b3c3backed Yes28c111.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No74c110.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes27c102.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8153437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c95.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes27c95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes29c89.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9715047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes27c84.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9987…9014backed Yes30c77.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c75.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.332,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No74c71.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4614671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes27c70.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1225239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes28c69.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.883745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes28c69.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4832147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes25c68.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.531,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes28c68.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes28c67.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9458732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No75c66.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c65.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2956131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No72c64.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.041,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No74c64.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c64.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.822,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No76c63.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.391,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes33c62.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7716030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe559…eaaebacked Yes38c61.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c09…0c75backed Yes31c60.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes26c59.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c59.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes24c57.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e95…b147backed Yes33c56.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes28c56.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.696823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c54.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed No66c54.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.657170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No74c54.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0527560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes34c53.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1517033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No73c53.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.115961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No67c50.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No70c49.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No74c49.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No74c48.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6480…9aeebacked Yes25c47.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No72c47.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2330859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes30c46.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7213663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No73c44.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8517066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No75c41.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3612564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbb…7bb8backed No71c40.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.743964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x108f…7136backed Yes35c40.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.034841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c40.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9421676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No76c38.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8817855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No66c36.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3424770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f4…c629backed No75c35.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c34.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.842,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c33.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7448672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb006…3458backed Yes34c33.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c28.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.134,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No69c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8314666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes39c28.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No71c27.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9319772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.564766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No66c25.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…5865backed No75c23.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.96981.2%56 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f08…de33backed No68c22.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.36540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No74c22.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8411664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x398b…0489backed No76c22.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.385461.1%33 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked No71c21.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.