Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5362c3b710fbfecab3f6269d3c6a7685b56a06b18f787bfeb278b19f01760dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 14c | 918.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 70c | 768.77$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.77 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 689.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.48 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…aeb5backed Yes | 28c | 383.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 36c | 341.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 290.88$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 288.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 286.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 7c | 261.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 18c | 182.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 179.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 15c | 164.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 163.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 64c | 162.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 159.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…6213backed No | 35c | 154.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 154.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 28c | 149.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed Yes | 56c | 142.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 130.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…112dbacked Yes | 79c | 125.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 19c | 124.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked Yes | 23c | 110.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 14c | 101.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…383cbacked Yes | 20c | 99.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 87.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 44c | 85.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 15c | 74.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 69c | 72.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 71.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 69.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 68.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 16c | 66.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 64.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 25c | 63.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 22c | 55.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 19c | 55.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…722dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 55c | 40.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 31c | 37.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…5673backed Yes | 43c | 37.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 36.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 33.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 74c | 32.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 52c | 28.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 50c | 25.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5d…c552backed No | 80c | 24.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 22.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…5e28backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…c745backed Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 75c | 13.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.