Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x030687f9946cc5751136d9c17d5143e3b8a025823196d8e1e1640705cba20a37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 2c | 1,424$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 22c | 1,034$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 80c | 872.5$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 554.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 9c | 264.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 161.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 155.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 128.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 79c | 128.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 120.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 114.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 108.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 100.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 98.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 92.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 51c | 92.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 80.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 77.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 30c | 72.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 70.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 55c | 70.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 49c | 68.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 63c | 63.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…894bbacked Yes | 35c | 61.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 62c | 60.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 59.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 58.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 58.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 55.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 56c | 53.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 47.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 58c | 46.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 46.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 45.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 45.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 43.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 51c | 40.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 38.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 58c | 37.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed Yes | 44c | 33.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 77c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 48c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 27.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 58c | 24.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 43c | 24.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 63c | 23.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 46c | 22.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 21.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 58c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.