Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96f339dda8cceb7eddfd74c70b265481c1aa34a690be861ae0ffe5809d3993ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 347.16$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 27c | 294.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 204.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 77c | 180.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 55c | 179.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 15c | 175.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 157.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 36c | 155.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 49c | 145.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 34c | 139.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 126.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 124.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 118.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 114.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 47c | 107.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 36c | 106.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…add8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…98c8backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 99.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 97.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 96.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 94.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 89.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 50c | 84.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 77.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 64c | 62.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 63c | 58.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 64c | 58.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 56.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 54.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 52.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 52.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 49.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 56c | 46.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 74c | 45.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 37c | 45.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 63c | 38.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 35.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 78c | 34.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 63c | 31.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 42c | 29.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 61c | 28.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 49c | 28.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…bc32backed Yes | 47c | 27.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 22.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 49c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…cd50backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.