TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EYEBALLERSof Astralis, EYEBALLERS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed EYEBALLERS25c27,319$6,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,620.0333043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Astralis51c25,942$13,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,158.7232552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Astralis50c14,181$7,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,037.3576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked EYEBALLERS29c4,629$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.855,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x246b…fb5bbacked EYEBALLERS70c4,370$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.013762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked EYEBALLERS68c4,050$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.127,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked EYEBALLERS54c4,025$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.0959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Astralis48c3,485$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.0981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Astralis4c3,333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3222927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed EYEBALLERS47c3,297$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.1317538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec5b…e28fbacked Astralis1c3,292$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Astralis61c3,071$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.1953746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed EYEBALLERS78c2,986$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.5312571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed EYEBALLERS27c2,688$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,962.578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed EYEBALLERS52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.976243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Astralis73c2,464$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.9645058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed EYEBALLERS41c2,364$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.3755043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked EYEBALLERS70c1,856$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.521,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked EYEBALLERS53c1,846$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.4812465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed Astralis46c1,671$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.279256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Astralis64c1,600$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.9760838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7857…bab6backed Astralis41c1,584$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.065160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EYEBALLERS58c1,462$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.645,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked EYEBALLERS59c1,312$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.5533457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Astralis76c1,307$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.371,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Astralis52c1,208$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.723,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Astralis74c1,089$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.8546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Astralis46c1,072$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.2337445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed EYEBALLERS79c1,034$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6912871.9%92 W · 36 L+16.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+20.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked Astralis50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Astralis75c999.86$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.8931253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0010…c3a8backed Astralis74c984.4$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.4631673.7%233 W · 83 L+23.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked EYEBALLERS25c984.18$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.1329235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Astralis62c904.89$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.0178963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Astralis71c902.47$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.7533452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed EYEBALLERS73c862.79$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.515536.4%20 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Astralis28c826.91$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4361837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8b…9084backed EYEBALLERS25c797.93$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Astralis21c790.97$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1567372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xcb1f…8eb3backed Astralis75c712.93$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.71553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed EYEBALLERS51c687.76$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3372751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Astralis27c677.35$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0649646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Astralis71c666$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.343056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd044…7f47backed Astralis3c665.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+101.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c82…9728backed Astralis80c639.55$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6421848.6%106 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Astralis46c630.62$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2931451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked EYEBALLERS71c624.99$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2519741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Astralis75c586.41$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.8441069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked EYEBALLERS58c584.86$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.035347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Astralis33c569.3$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.363,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Astralis65c561.41$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4646165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Astralis50c560.66$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3331452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked EYEBALLERS21c555.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.474850%24 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed EYEBALLERS24c554.95$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.2216047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Astralis53c550.92$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.534854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed EYEBALLERS25c542.42$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.8232042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked EYEBALLERS47c539.72$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5311452.6%60 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Astralis35c532.67$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8439258.2%228 W · 164 L+18.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Astralis59c529.3$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.484,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed EYEBALLERS25c499.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.991,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Astralis59c497.33$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9131852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EYEBALLERS65c489.7$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.441,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11ab…f911backed Astralis67c470.64$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7310455.8%58 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Astralis44c437.1$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3713238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Astralis4c413.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5369624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis53c400$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.142,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed EYEBALLERS37c399.98$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.9978348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed EYEBALLERS61c397.94$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3215373.2%112 W · 41 L+18.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Astralis61c397.91$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2622444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed EYEBALLERS22c397.29$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.572,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Astralis75c394$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.519047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Astralis28c382.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.161,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Astralis55c371.15$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4738454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Astralis48c360.03$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4415857.6%91 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked EYEBALLERS21c358.1$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.721,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Astralis72c340.85$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8232653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Astralis26c340.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.721,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Astralis41c327.36$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.896545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…cf08backed Astralis62c316.4$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.416651.5%34 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed EYEBALLERS51c313.72$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.721351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Astralis37c312.06$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4650846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Astralis31c309.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8636151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis38c305.1$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.781,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked EYEBALLERS71c302.98$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9540655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Astralis4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1236837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked EYEBALLERS78c298.6$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0510945%49 W · 60 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed EYEBALLERS50c289.8$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2815358.2%89 W · 64 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed EYEBALLERS27c286.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4150947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked EYEBALLERS34c282.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.3484037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked EYEBALLERS23c274.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.675648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Astralis60c260.53$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.229052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed EYEBALLERS63c258.45$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6357358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Astralis29c247.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.82937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed EYEBALLERS52c241.96$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5954439.7%216 W · 328 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked EYEBALLERS25c240.08$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4427556.7%156 W · 119 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis69c236.45$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1581244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Astralis76c228.74$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed EYEBALLERS67c224.6$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.211,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Astralis72c218.49$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3122252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8b…2858backed Astralis53c214.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.