NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe941a24d8ef2c77ac61cfb7729c21975b1268e7060e4fd4ac5164059ce41045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 2c | 4,825$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 5c | 509$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 8c | 466.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 346.88$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 74c | 285.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 43c | 284.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 41c | 245.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 26c | 203.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 202$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 74c | 168.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 156.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 18c | 135.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 111.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a875backed Under | 71c | 105.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 47c | 103.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 26c | 92.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 57c | 72.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 40c | 70.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…2c71backed Over | 26c | 46.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 35c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…8f08backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 29.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Under | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Under | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…30e3backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7d…e3a8backed Under | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe850…a9cfbacked Under | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Under | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Sabres vs. RangersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-2.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.