Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9335071a8995de1f9967a76dc959fc1ffdfffa4fb6f8911714eda792dfd083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 51c | 439.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 274.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 264.62$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 213.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 183.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 62c | 165.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 54c | 130.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 119.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 118.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 54c | 118.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 105.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 44c | 103.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 55c | 103.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 57c | 98.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed No | 45c | 83.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 71.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 50c | 65.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 50c | 64.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 63.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…efffbacked No | 47c | 61.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 54c | 61.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 61c | 60.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 60.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 50c | 48.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 57c | 45.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 45.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 38.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 36.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 54c | 36.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 46c | 35.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 46c | 35.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 56c | 34.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 56c | 34.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked No | 44c | 33.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 51c | 33.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 55c | 33.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 49c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 80c | 30.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 36c | 29.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 37c | 28.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 27.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 27.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 49c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 52c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 53c | 24.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 52c | 22.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 50c | 22.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…af2cbacked Yes | 53c | 19.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 76c | 15.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.