Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b77719a7489d40c569e4d3297e294f95b9c925e17317ffec4c134608e3142a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6083…163dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 52c | 1,406$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.98 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 72c | 1,223$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.28 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 31c | 1,102$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8595…3a2cbacked Yes | 2c | 970.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 956.71$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 51c | 874.26$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.02 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 56c | 785.17$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.82 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 42c | 725.1$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 71c | 680.77$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 67c | 615.4$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 599.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 77c | 543.35$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.72 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 506.03$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 66c | 490.56$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 63c | 489.37$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 465.88$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.29 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yes | 46c | 456.22$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 392.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 387.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…ce93backed No | 57c | 383.06$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 47c | 358.13$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 348.66$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 70c | 347.53$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked Yes | 70c | 338.44$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 40c | 324.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 47c | 313.81$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 302.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 294.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 286.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 70c | 219.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 219.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 52c | 217.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 51c | 207.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…975dbacked Yes | 57c | 204.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 27c | 197.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 38c | 195.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 41c | 194.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 68c | 193.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 182.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 175.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…423dbacked No | 18c | 163.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 50c | 161.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 43c | 160.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…3c32backed No | 58c | 159.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 44c | 156.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 41c | 156.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 151.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 35c | 149.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 39c | 149.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 51c | 141.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 49c | 139.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 136.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 36c | 135.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 12c | 133.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 36c | 133.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 131.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 130.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed Yes | 78c | 126.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 44c | 125.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 38c | 122.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1504…0e93backed Yes | 64c | 116.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 107.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 44c | 107.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 44c | 105.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 100.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 23c | 100.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 55c | 99.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 98.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 46c | 96.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 92.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 57c | 90.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked Yes | 46c | 90.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…6293backed Yes | 47c | 89.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed Yes | 80c | 89.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 53c | 87.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3aa…3d9cbacked Yes | 50c | 86.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 55c | 86.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 16c | 84.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784e…6029backed Yes | 59c | 79.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 27c | 78.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 50c | 75.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 74c | 74.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 26c | 73.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…7e02backed Yes | 54c | 70.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 54c | 70.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 57c | 70.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…35d3backed No | 53c | 70.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +255%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 69.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0f…46aabacked Yes | 47c | 69.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 35c | 69.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.