Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ada32ccc6deb035317b855a18397eaefc85baf48386a3454c7746332f6e594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 0c | 15,097$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…8d47backed No | 0c | 15,005$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 1c | 12,962$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed No | 0c | 12,157$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 7c | 4,424$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.33 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 1c | 3,593$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 3,201$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,031$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.11 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 1,995$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 32c | 1,391$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.07 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed Yes | 71c | 1,327$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,253$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.62 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 12c | 1,240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 1,122$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.81 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 817.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 14c | 811.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.7 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 8c | 709.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 604.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 583.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.26 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 496.07$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 7c | 473.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 398.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 398.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.92 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 358.41$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.58 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 347.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 309.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 62c | 262.09$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 26c | 259.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 8c | 252.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.04 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 12c | 241.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 224.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.36 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 216.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 40c | 210.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 208.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 11c | 195.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 32c | 175.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 12c | 151.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 145.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 31c | 141.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 8c | 140.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 26c | 136.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 132.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 125.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 11c | 122.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed No | 66c | 117.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed No | 75c | 111.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 19c | 95.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 63c | 78.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…f3b2backed Yes | 50c | 77.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…cd85backed No | 79c | 75.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…9d35backed Yes | 59c | 69.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 33c | 63.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784e…6029backed Yes | 78c | 62.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cac…1fbabacked No | 30c | 50.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…c51dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…ea7ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 59c | 39.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 38.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 30c | 37.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 62c | 34.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 65c | 29.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 57c | 27.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 78c | 27.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 22.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.