Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68d56dab496a26906093eb8a240666741bbc3e50b452f95c231328d64da09f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339d…0d97backed Yes | 0c | 20,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,398$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 6c | 811.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 6c | 746.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 8c | 664.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 662.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 9c | 511.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 410.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked Yes | 10c | 398.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 8c | 378.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 5c | 373.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 7c | 330.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f32…073abacked Yes | 6c | 271.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 221$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…8b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 209.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 7c | 170.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 6c | 167.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4715…df11backed Yes | 7c | 153.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 7c | 149.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.