Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0f920f1298a27cc354619ac032b22b7b45704255d9312404cc65a20e763075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcea4…8698backed Yes | 0c | 26,590$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…2dffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,196$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 13c | 1,947$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 74c | 1,563$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.55 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 25c | 1,216$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 60c | 991.33$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 805.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 40c | 693.05$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.22 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 570.94$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.52 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 30c | 470.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.89 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 25c | 443.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 67c | 417.11$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 391.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 13c | 380.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.68 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked Yes | 28c | 368.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 30c | 347.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 304.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 38c | 296.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 69c | 286.55$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 279.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 56c | 266.34$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 34c | 264.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 80c | 245.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 68c | 235.11$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 14c | 195.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 57c | 185.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed No | 21c | 180.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.34 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 32c | 176.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 173.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 170.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 33c | 170.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 39c | 168.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 163.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 155.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 12c | 152$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed Yes | 41c | 151.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 38c | 146.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 22c | 141.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 14c | 140.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 30c | 135.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 31c | 134.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 31c | 132.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 120.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed Yes | 17c | 117.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 66c | 116.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 21c | 116.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 40c | 115.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 35c | 114.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 14c | 101.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784e…6029backed Yes | 48c | 100.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 17c | 98.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 32c | 96.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 96.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 96.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 12c | 96.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 61c | 90.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 77c | 87.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 84.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 59c | 82.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 35c | 79.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 71c | 78.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 77.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 37c | 76.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 33c | 75.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 71.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 65.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 43c | 65.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 66c | 65.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 28c | 62.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 61.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 63c | 59.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 58.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 42c | 56.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 25c | 51.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 38c | 51.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 74c | 49.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed Yes | 38c | 49.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 36c | 47.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 25c | 46.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed No | 69c | 39.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 52c | 39.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 45c | 39.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 65c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…e8cbbacked Yes | 38c | 32.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.