TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBRof MIBR, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$407,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$478,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4222…e501backed 3DMAX0c94,006$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed MIBR74c25,558$19,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,538.588670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 3DMAX20c20,010$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.563,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked 3DMAX26c16,874$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.4232552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed MIBR76c14,350$10,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.978750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed MIBR41c10,410$4,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,131.1925842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 3DMAX29c8,836$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.676058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX14c8,777$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.012,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MIBR48c8,363$4,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,308.8981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 3DMAX34c5,945$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.0388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked MIBR42c5,745$2,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,332.242138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 3DMAX59c5,664$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,339.7664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX28c5,543$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.681,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed 3DMAX54c5,458$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.4653746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 3DMAX26c5,442$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.391,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04fe…3688backed 3DMAX50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX29c4,886$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.986,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 3DMAX44c4,866$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.32,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa17c…b2e6backed 3DMAX5c4,687$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.27566.7%50 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed 3DMAX58c4,500$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,61045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed 3DMAX55c2,945$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.2346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MIBR53c2,817$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.011,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 3DMAX34c2,505$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.542,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed MIBR41c2,331$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.9724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed MIBR47c1,981$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.3655043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked 3DMAX49c1,939$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.0116447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked MIBR41c1,400$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce5…9e1bbacked 3DMAX24c1,371$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.844431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed 3DMAX55c1,360$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9141850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…2ea8backed MIBR42c1,255$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.951764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed 3DMAX58c1,231$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.625248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed 3DMAX60c1,200$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7204955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked 3DMAX2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked 3DMAX54c1,188$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.7853545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed 3DMAX53c1,155$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.117538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed MIBR42c1,145$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2437445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed 3DMAX42c1,142$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.6410133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked 3DMAX14c1,104$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7137441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…99dabacked 3DMAX19c1,102$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.411850%9 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab35…60f6backed 3DMAX23c1,100$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535534.5%19 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked MIBR45c1,085$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.3611452.6%60 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed 3DMAX41c1,077$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5560838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked 3DMAX59c1,024$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.2629235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MIBR40c1,016$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.565,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed 3DMAX71c999.98$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9829858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed MIBR42c982.44$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.818032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed 3DMAX2c900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked 3DMAX59c845.19$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.662356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked 3DMAX13c805.26$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked 3DMAX2c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed4d…6a0bbacked MIBR53c763.89$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.542152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed MIBR56c722.63$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9633452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked 3DMAX24c696.06$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2544957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed 3DMAX24c672.64$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.431,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 3DMAX24c654.72$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1346345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed MIBR77c649.82$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.115536.4%20 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 3DMAX27c634.78$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.265,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed 3DMAX18c605.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3820332.5%66 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 3DMAX59c599.99$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.9946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked 3DMAX58c583.92$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.6781244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MIBR44c574.72$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.8152951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 3DMAX40c563.97$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.151,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked 3DMAX59c524.77$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.613560%21 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked 3DMAX37c500$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.512132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked 3DMAX56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2808149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked MIBR40c484.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.5731253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked 3DMAX61c483.99$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed MIBR42c482.6$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9117840.4%72 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked MIBR42c482.6$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.915843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked 3DMAX5c463.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.862334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b8b…2c87backed 3DMAX20c452.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe35…5d8bbacked MIBR73c449.39$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.11735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed 3DMAX58c447$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2613049.2%64 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 3DMAX17c440.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.064,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2273…7e01backed 3DMAX25c438.27$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.894555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed MIBR42c399.98$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9978348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked 3DMAX62c399$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3840950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…b9a9backed MIBR43c396.71$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.331020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed MIBR32c392.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1150846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed MIBR50c389.13$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1534156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…cf08backed 3DMAX50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1946651.5%34 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked 3DMAX56c379.34$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2627740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked 3DMAX60c363.75$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0131852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed 3DMAX11c344.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.733036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked 3DMAX57c339.24$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7519834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed 3DMAX14c336.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4218426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed 3DMAX40c314.41$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6413238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 3DMAX45c308.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.592,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 3DMAX10c305.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1262backed 3DMAX70c303.68$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd795…589abacked 3DMAX36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084951%25 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed 3DMAX37c295.26$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10841645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed MIBR67c294.04$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3233553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked 3DMAX23c293.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.469546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed 3DMAX50c277.77$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8831452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed 3DMAX61c271.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5114751%75 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed MIBR73c269.3$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.566246.8%29 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed MIBR77c256.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.929862.2%61 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed 3DMAX58c250.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2714135.5%50 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX30c249.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.844,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.