TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64a6…4ac1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
107
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT6553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$22.72
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$10.71
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$15.31
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$14.87
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$13.53
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+89.5%+$27.48
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$31.34
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+69.3%+$19.41
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+61%+$18.29
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+119.5%+$41.18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.57
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$29.35
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+93.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+115.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+109.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.91
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+318.9%+$47.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$24.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$38.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.