Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6fb74ed9c30dd114d1d5a9abe081d2e2e595e5568068f396dc8d977603be692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 48c | 615.44$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 357$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 68c | 260.25$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 237.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 7c | 177.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 161.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 161.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 158.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 37c | 132$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 119.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 113.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 39c | 112.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 63c | 108.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 87.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 82.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 58c | 73.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 60c | 66.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 60.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 60.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 59.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 44c | 58.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 76c | 57.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 51.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 51.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 58c | 48.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 46c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 76c | 27.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 24.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 22.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 73c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 74c | 15.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.