Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d0d4b010fa9ceb052b01653ee34e4bcd739a100a6ffa95085a200e6a26f937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 46c | 500.01$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.19 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 365.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 296.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.68 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 63c | 283.73$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 246.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 41c | 214.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 211.2$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 57c | 207.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 29c | 196.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 19c | 192.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 64c | 179.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 69c | 150.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 123.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 116.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 106.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 38c | 102.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 85.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 74.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 22c | 72.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 24c | 72.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 69.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 68.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 65.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 60.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 58.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 53.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…7a33backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 31c | 49.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 49.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 48.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 46.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 44.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 38.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 80c | 36.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 41c | 36.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 71c | 33.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 29.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 74c | 25.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 22.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 66c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 19.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.