Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3877ec6c9d740059939f150ce91127c66f842bff37b3f9fb49b7b1e7c91717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 68c | 966.62$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 48c | 624.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.02 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 539.24$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 58c | 431.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 11c | 418.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 410.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 343.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 325.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 317.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 317.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 55c | 304.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.72 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 69c | 275.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.11 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 249$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 247.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 37c | 234.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 219.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 61c | 205.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 198.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 51c | 185.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 37c | 174.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 171.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 168.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 156.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 22c | 140.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 45c | 140.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 51c | 137.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 27c | 125.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 109.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 108.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 47c | 106.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 45c | 102.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…26a6backed Yes | 41c | 99.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 92.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 42c | 92.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 50c | 81.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 55c | 76.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 72.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 51c | 70.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 42c | 70.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 50c | 70.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 69.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 42c | 68.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 69c | 64.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 52c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 52c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 44c | 57.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 55.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 53.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 52c | 53.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 23c | 52.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 53c | 48.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…1178backed Yes | 43c | 48.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 62c | 48.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 47.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 80c | 45.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 44c | 45.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 55c | 43.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 56c | 42.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 39.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 39.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 38.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 37c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 36.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 41c | 36.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 57c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.