Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c9c13ad3429f2590938416f16e69e42a1b9c84cd74ea6bd26958c92aab367b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 373.4$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 365.7$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 322$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 22c | 277.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 271$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 211.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed Yes | 11c | 193.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 179.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 178.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 175.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 14c | 175.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 157.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 26c | 152.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 149.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 7c | 140.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 123.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 35c | 123.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 16c | 121.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 114.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 109.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 15c | 106.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 27c | 103.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 101.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 21c | 99.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 96.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 28c | 82.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 78.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 78.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 22c | 70.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 17c | 58.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 19c | 56.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…4262backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 54.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 52.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 79c | 50.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 47.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 45.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 44.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…26a6backed Yes | 30c | 43.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 42.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 40.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 40.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 77c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 35.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…808abacked No | 73c | 26.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 24.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 75c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 73c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 78c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 79c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 79c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 72c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…62bebacked No | 72c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 78c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 78c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.