Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630cac7f160f045e158515b2fdc8b369df84cf58f8e324143010a9dd5a6910b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,664$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.66 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 905.55$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 31c | 899.97$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.28 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 73c | 737.45$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 75c | 581.79$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 67c | 467$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 46c | 454.14$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.18 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 447.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 45c | 419.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.97 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 317.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 63c | 305.48$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 45c | 299.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 293$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.74 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 43c | 272.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 261.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 252.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 248.46$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 229.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 43c | 213.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 194.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 54c | 191$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 184.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 154.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 152.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 150.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 78c | 137$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 128.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 20c | 122.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 102.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 31c | 100.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 49c | 99.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 94.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 93.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 85.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 33c | 78.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 75c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…8a53backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 19c | 75.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 40c | 75.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 59c | 75.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 63c | 74.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 72.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 22c | 71.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…26a6backed Yes | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 67c | 65.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 64c | 62.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 50c | 58.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 58.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 56.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 55.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 55.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 54c | 55.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 37c | 54.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 51.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 51c | 48.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 80c | 44.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 60c | 40.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 38.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 37.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 39c | 37.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 38c | 36.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 37c | 36.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 36.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed No | 55c | 28.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 26.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked No | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…4262backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.