Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3c119707657f098cdb8fac041ebac43d12a8829f701b21468f624e7be88b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 573.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 301.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 24c | 231.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 78c | 209.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 200.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 196.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 164.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 33c | 151.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 140.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 74c | 134.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 73c | 124.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 33c | 123.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 120.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 113.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 66c | 107.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 102.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 97.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 86.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 85.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 80.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 79.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 69.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 65.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 63.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 49c | 61.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 56.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 52.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 49.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 49.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 60c | 48.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 44.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…3704backed Yes | 27c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 27c | 41.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 40.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 40.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c329backed Yes | 28c | 36.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 35.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 34.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 34c | 31.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 31.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 67c | 27.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 61c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 75c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.