Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8ebace818363c77fb5381e401c3d8ea3e83527cfdfa879b644ec44774563b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,370$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 846.04$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 5c | 500.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 492$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 60c | 314.14$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 69c | 313.57$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 301.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 24c | 277.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 5c | 264.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.64 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 261$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 175.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 15c | 168$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 164.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 59c | 160.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 75c | 133.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 63c | 101.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 69.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 42c | 69.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 60.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 60.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 67c | 60.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 55.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 68c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 46.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 36c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 53c | 45.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 44.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 34.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 66c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 78c | 28.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…db32backed Yes | 70c | 27.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 27.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 79c | 25.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 57c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.