Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600455a9163ee633e517567c8f4a0d21537e920a4640abf309cef006c44a8f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 414.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 43c | 311.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 299.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 47c | 258.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 248.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 231.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 227.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 205.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 43c | 157.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 150.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 39c | 149.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 138.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 39c | 130.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 130.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…06c2backed Yes | 31c | 130.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 124.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 33c | 123.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 119.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 53c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 108.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 104.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 66c | 102.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…c516backed No | 55c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 95.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 95.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 60c | 92.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 92.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 90.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 52c | 87.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 47c | 82.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 82.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 35c | 81.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 76.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 75.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 69c | 73.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 34c | 73.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 67.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 26c | 65.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 63.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 22c | 57.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 51c | 52.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 57c | 51.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 50.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 57c | 50.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…4005backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…3704backed Yes | 37c | 49.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 47.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 46.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 42.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 44c | 42.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 33c | 40.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 39.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 38.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 38.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 57c | 37.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 28c | 36.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 46c | 36.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 45c | 35.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 35.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…1540backed No | 34c | 32.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 32.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 56c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.