TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c414.47$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes43c311.44$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6646444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No58c299.96$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4816046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Yes47c258.41$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.028833%29 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes52c248.64$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes47c231.37$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.181,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c227.59$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes36c205.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.992,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c202.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adf…48cdbacked No78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.882931%9 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes43c157.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c156$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8481165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No62c150.53$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.021,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes39c149.42$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c138.27$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.172,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No39c130.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1914158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No61c130.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ec…06c2backed Yes31c130.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No46c124.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.612,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes33c123.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.813915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c119.42$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes53c110$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.456946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes42c108.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes35c104.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.521,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No66c102.32$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4424539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6674…c516backed No55c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes29c95.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6535133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c95.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No60c92.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4619764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c92.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.484,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c90.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No74c90$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1514168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes52c87.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.784353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No47c82.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9138258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No65c82.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.522,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No35c81.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.339158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes58c76.79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No58c75.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No69c73.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8713160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Yes34c73.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.515824.1%14 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes42c68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c67.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.272,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes26c65.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.227050%35 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No59c63.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7234250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No22c57.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No72c55.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes26c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes38c52.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No51c52.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No57c51.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes79c50.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7557659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed Yes57c50.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5738758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.58246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9630…4005backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d8…52d5backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.38229.3%24 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc416…3704backed Yes37c49.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c49.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No59c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.261,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c47.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.379,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes41c47.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes53c46.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9511240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No47c46.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.772,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.613340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes36c42.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes44c42.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6125447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes33c40.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.93951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No59c39.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes35c38.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.041,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No72c38.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.432,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked No70c38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Yes57c37.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.062646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No28c36.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes46c36.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.418436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes45c35.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9218242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes33c35.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34c2…1540backed No34c32.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No45c32.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes55c32.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5718845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No76c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.717744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.621448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes54c26.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2943842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes42c25.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9813553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes47c25.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes66c22.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed Yes56c20.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.843488.2%30 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes67c15.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1911069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.