Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082efd1dcb863e7e4913de34f9762c85e5ac099ddfdda40f342cd84d632e6990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 562.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 320.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 22c | 302.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 28c | 222.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 181.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 15c | 165.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 163.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 160.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 17c | 151.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 145.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 10c | 137.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 116.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 99.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 94.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 89.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 79c | 85.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 71c | 82.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 82.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 78.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 22c | 74.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 63.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 32c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 51.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 47.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 43.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 38.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 36.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 68c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 79c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.