Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2356c7de0edafefff792442cd3b434bfc303c548f9fcdb146bbfad28edf963f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 30c | 382.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 15c | 377.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 31c | 254.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 58c | 252.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 46c | 248.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 59c | 248.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 37c | 238.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 182.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 174.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 170.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 149.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 134.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 129.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 128$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 122.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 117.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 112.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 66c | 107.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 106.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 105.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 104.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 102.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 92.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 89.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 88.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 85.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 19c | 84.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 84.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 32c | 77.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 64c | 75.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 27c | 72.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 29c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 66.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…a372backed Yes | 33c | 65.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 64.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…042fbacked No | 61c | 62.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 59.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 58.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 36c | 45.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 43c | 43.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 69c | 43.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 41.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 43c | 40.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 38.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 57c | 33.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 37c | 33.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 55c | 32.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 38c | 32.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 67c | 26.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 46c | 26.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 25.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 67c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on May 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.