Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d78013d44535e8279764b7f6d1f003c7afdfff280cd4e7ba62e10c17ffae8e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 2c | 794.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 386.63$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 51c | 364.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 316.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 28c | 262.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 225.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 41c | 178.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 54c | 120.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 13c | 89.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…fdc5backed No | 54c | 87.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 57c | 87.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 84.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 60c | 76.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 74.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed No | 27c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 37c | 70.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 60c | 68.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 52c | 65.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 47c | 62.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 48c | 59.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 72c | 53.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 52.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…ca88backed Yes | 37c | 51.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 47.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 58c | 47.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 42.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…740fbacked No | 55c | 38.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 51c | 34.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 56c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 33.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…243bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 52c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 47c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…5289backed Yes | 53c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 78c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 47c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8010backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 46c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6f72backed No | 54c | 20.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed No | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 53c | 18.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a19…3eddbacked Yes | 66c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 35°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.