Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ecf3b9f1cade2375b2fe876be436c7a1b5a2609c254335aa51fb0287dd60015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe587…dc56backed Yes | 34c | 548.92$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 283.34$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 274.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 197.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 56c | 165.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 143.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed No | 58c | 140.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 20c | 121.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 51c | 116.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 115.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 114.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 17c | 95.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 56c | 89.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 43c | 72.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 60c | 70.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 69.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 65.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 64.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 70c | 61.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 60.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 60.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 67c | 59.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 46c | 58.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 58.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 57.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 33c | 56.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 53.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked No | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 43c | 37.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 37.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 63c | 34.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 34.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 33.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 64c | 31.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 37c | 29.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 66c | 25.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 77c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 23.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 21.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked No | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 77c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…ce20backed No | 70c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.