Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5121761ff51d331a1d1659662e24e2bfa6fe71c2687fdc824cae7ea46c8acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 337.45$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 105.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 102.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 101.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 83.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 78.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 75.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 72c | 65.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 64.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 35c | 50.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 32c | 45.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 45.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 47c | 44.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 44.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 51c | 41.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 53c | 40.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 36c | 36.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 34.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 36c | 30.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…c8f7backed Yes | 44c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 27.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 67c | 25.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 24.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 59c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…69d0backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 20.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…05b8backed No | 69c | 18.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 72c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.