Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c4b590332760cb9c624ee0698166ba10e334b08800d082d157a34ff6c494c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b9…b428backed Yes | 4c | 32,604$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 4,991$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,589$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 3c | 2,193$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 79c | 1,798$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.87 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 1c | 1,773$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 1,571$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…bee3backed Yes | 1c | 1,544$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 19c | 1,305$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 1,245$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.07 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,197$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 1,030$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 955.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 933.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 932.52$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 4c | 903.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 40c | 899.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.64 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 66c | 856$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 2c | 850.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 707.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 4c | 689.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 6c | 688.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 16c | 585.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 511.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 479.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 453.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 393.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 50c | 334.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.01 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 319.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 319.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 8c | 311.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 18c | 299.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 70c | 299.68$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 293.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 5c | 250.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…1603backed Yes | 4c | 249.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 233.82$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 8c | 227.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 29c | 225.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed Yes | 41c | 218.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 60c | 210.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 42c | 210.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 209.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 19c | 175.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…24d7backed Yes | 40c | 168.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 66c | 164.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 74c | 162.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 145.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 141.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 80c | 138.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked No | 76c | 132.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…1f1ebacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 18c | 119.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 45c | 110.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 50c | 109.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…5e78backed Yes | 45c | 97.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 41c | 94.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 54c | 93.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked No | 72c | 92.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…6b30backed Yes | 61c | 81.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 35c | 71.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed Yes | 36c | 69.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed No | 79c | 68.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 18c | 65.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 45c | 63.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 72c | 58.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 57.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 47c | 55.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 55.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 28c | 53.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 73c | 42.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed Yes | 49c | 37.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…338ebacked Yes | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 31.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…3c2bbacked Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…b1cabacked Yes | 72c | 28.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.