Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c508d28ad0f0f8acdaa3fa3912fa3009dc91fe5c713a3654ff6c93425216a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 1,521$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,148$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.18 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 27c | 1,061$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 1,019$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 25c | 827.27$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.89 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 14c | 800.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.22 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 50c | 678.74$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.25 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 78c | 567.74$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 535.09$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 23c | 475.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 460.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 365.36$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 74c | 337.37$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 333$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 18c | 311.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.66 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 42c | 303.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 32c | 294.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 70c | 279.29$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 36c | 278.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 276.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 260.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 19c | 232.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 28c | 220.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 210.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 206$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 205.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 18c | 202.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.15 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…fe54backed Yes | 26c | 195.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 58c | 187.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 67c | 165.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 61c | 165.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 161.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 160$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 19c | 154.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 31c | 154$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 54c | 153.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 150.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 58c | 148.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 37c | 143.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 13c | 141.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 33c | 139.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 138.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 137.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 78c | 127$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…f285backed Yes | 12c | 118.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +744.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 112.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 32c | 97.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 20c | 95.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 94.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 40c | 90.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 84.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 17c | 80.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 16c | 77.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 75.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 70.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6700…67c4backed Yes | 15c | 69.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 17c | 69.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 17c | 69.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…1603backed Yes | 15c | 67.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 69c | 64.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 24c | 64.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 80c | 64.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 47c | 64.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 59c | 57.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 46c | 54.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 51.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 49c | 43.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 41.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 80c | 41.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…5e78backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…e53ebacked Yes | 63c | 38.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…e293backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 48c | 32.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.