Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c86d52ea3fc6c81ee518f016ffc5e718515b41b5af4048f6128fd263466e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 8,217$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 899.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 9c | 863.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 340.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 338.91$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 316.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…63babacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +624.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 27c | 297.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 32c | 274.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 24c | 261.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 31c | 255.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 21c | 217.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 186.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 183.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 174.51$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 164.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 37c | 162.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 68c | 147.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 28c | 137.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 22c | 132.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 21c | 118.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 115.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 77c | 112.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 28c | 106.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…6947backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 27c | 94.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…4fe7backed Yes | 37c | 91.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 38c | 83.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 36c | 82.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…1603backed Yes | 18c | 73.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 72.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 76c | 70.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 69.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…6b30backed Yes | 38c | 66.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 60.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 37c | 57.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 36c | 56.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…af5bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed Yes | 36c | 55.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 48.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 28c | 44.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…fe8abacked Yes | 31c | 44.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…5400backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 36c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 71c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 25.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 68c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…163dbacked No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.