Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d2709c3db7e88d304ded44c30642f4a5699fe42536e5ef193b94660160ae81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 12,084$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,250$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 57c | 1,571$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.96 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 1,026$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 12c | 899.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 52c | 683.23$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 546.16$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.11 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…63babacked Yes | 12c | 499.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +624.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 489.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 46c | 435.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 49c | 406.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 32c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 12c | 362.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 61c | 304.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 302.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 28c | 248.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 56c | 229.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 227$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 225.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 44c | 223.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 44c | 211.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 201.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 199.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 40c | 193.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 187.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 43c | 180.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 10c | 178.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 38c | 148.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 142.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…7972backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 50c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…097dbacked Yes | 51c | 113.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 44c | 112.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 42c | 107.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 42c | 100.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 53c | 98.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 52c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked Yes | 47c | 95.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 88.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 46c | 86.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 34c | 73.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…5e78backed Yes | 29c | 68.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed Yes | 17c | 66.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 45c | 65.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 65.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…6b30backed Yes | 42c | 58.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…4fe7backed Yes | 46c | 58.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 36c | 57.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 45c | 52.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…6293backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 38c | 52.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…472dbacked No | 80c | 50.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…460dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 63c | 48.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ca08backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 23c | 46.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 43c | 39.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…75aebacked No | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…9356backed Yes | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 48c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…26a6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…26fbbacked Yes | 46c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 46c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 49c | 21.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 65c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.