TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes62c1,318$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.5342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes26c1,053$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.9910843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes23c958.33$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.331428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No32c899.97$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.836114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No49c868.87$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c535.45$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes16c514.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.4456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes22c453.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.242,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No63c441.46$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.972,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No15c367.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.752,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No55c355.06$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.831,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No76c327.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c302.04$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c282.29$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.315,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes17c272.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.94533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes56c271.52$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No60c271.11$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4522450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes24c249.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes62c242.68$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed Yes61c227.86$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7917861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c221.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.843,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes47c210.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6415236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes30c209.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes28c208$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes17c207.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4072…ec73backed No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes14c199.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0674023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes56c199.59$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.141,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c188.27$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No72c181.42$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes31c162.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No77c161.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8519160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No71c159.79$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.91,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c140.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes24c135.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.817135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c135$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.011,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No66c134.28$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.241,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd36b…5942backed No76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes30c129.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.252729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No77c129$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3381165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes63c126.37$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c125.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.432,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes37c120.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.11955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc705…b62fbacked Yes46c117.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.072850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes44c116.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0646444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes56c116.71$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.15534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes19c110$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes11c108.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.153333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes16c104.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c103.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.667,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c100.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f0…566ebacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.311747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.414022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30d2…e250backed No77c99.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes25c97.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0945236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No75c90.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2616968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c90.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.661,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No73c90$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No78c89.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes22c89.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes22c88.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.863636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes29c87.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0710354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes50c85.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes16c82.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.861,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes45c79.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.212941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes25c78.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9816626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c1…8c40backed No78c77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.431952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked Yes65c76.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.756471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c76.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.413,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No77c75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No51c74.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No75c74.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes16c72.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes23c70.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7727130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No78c69.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes56c69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6820358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c6c…9253backed No73c68.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No46c68.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3355855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes22c66.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0917033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes24c65.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes26c64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4214926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7846452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9917140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes43c57.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8352444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7475…dd59backed Yes50c57.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes30c55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.683,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes20c55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.875940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes50c54.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.455729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1981…0415backed Yes26c54.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+291.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07e1…3fb4backed No74c53.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c52.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4077…88e0backed Yes24c50.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.211338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6db…24e4backed Yes21c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.49932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2686…d740backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.131520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3919123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2532147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.