Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb095faf26a73ca4755736bd1ec1b21c030c5f1028defbeadba2618048db8a388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 62c | 1,318$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.53 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 26c | 1,053$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.99 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 23c | 958.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 32c | 899.97$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 49c | 868.87$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 535.45$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 16c | 514.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.44 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 453.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 441.46$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 367.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 355.06$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 76c | 327.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 302.04$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 282.29$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 17c | 272.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 56c | 271.52$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 60c | 271.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 249.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.19 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 62c | 242.68$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 61c | 227.86$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 221.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 47c | 210.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 209.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 28c | 208$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 17c | 207.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…ec73backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 56c | 199.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 188.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 181.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes | 31c | 162.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 77c | 161.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 159.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 140.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 24c | 135.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 135$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 134.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 30c | 129.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 63c | 126.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 125.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…017ebacked Yes | 37c | 120.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 46c | 117.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 44c | 116.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 56c | 116.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 11c | 108.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 16c | 104.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 103.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 100.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…e250backed No | 77c | 99.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 97.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 75c | 90.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 90.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 78c | 89.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 22c | 89.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 22c | 88.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 29c | 87.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 50c | 85.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 82.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 45c | 79.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 25c | 78.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 76.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 74.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 74.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 72.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 23c | 70.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 78c | 69.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 56c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed No | 73c | 68.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 46c | 68.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 22c | 66.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 65.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 57.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…dd59backed Yes | 50c | 57.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 50c | 54.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…0415backed Yes | 26c | 54.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +291.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…3fb4backed No | 74c | 53.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 52.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…88e0backed Yes | 24c | 50.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…24e4backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.