Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305c79c16d067f5e30727fbb5151505a749db81ae5851465b34509a33e2c177f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 11c | 899.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…f896backed Yes | 33c | 641.05$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 23c | 622.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 460.52$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 385.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 265.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 258.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 78c | 255.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 24c | 247.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 236.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 225.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 222.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 34c | 199.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 27c | 184.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 159.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 140$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 21c | 133.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 131.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 26c | 130.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 122.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 116.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 77c | 111.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 111.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4c89backed No | 79c | 108.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 25c | 106.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 105.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 104.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 103.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…e250backed Yes | 22c | 99.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 26c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…952cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 93.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 25c | 90.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 23c | 88.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 20c | 87.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 87.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 23c | 86.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…c151backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 85.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 85.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 20c | 84.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 36c | 78.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 26c | 75.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 79c | 75.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 78c | 74.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 72.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 77c | 72.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 71.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 22c | 69.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 68.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 25c | 67.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 67.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 20c | 67.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 25c | 65.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 65.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 64.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 61.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 74c | 61.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 80c | 57.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 55.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 49.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…e94bbacked No | 75c | 37.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 73c | 37.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8d1abacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 35c | 31.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 35c | 31.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed No | 74c | 28.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.